Before anyone trusts a lean, we replay the summer: models rebuilt each morning with only what was knowable, graded against 850 real games and the actual DraftKings prices captured before first pitch, including the purchased strikeout prop price history. Two model generations so far. This page is what the iteration loop has found, including the parts that hurt.
| Bet type | v1 Brier | Matchup v2 Brier | Market Brier | v1 sim ROI | v2 sim ROI | Positive? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (838 games) | .2487 | .2478 | .2436 | -1.5% | -5.1% | No |
| Totals (809 games) | .2582 | .2512 | .2500 | -3.3% | -0.8% | No, but closest |
| Strikeout props at DK lines (1,225) | .2628 | .2540 | .2455 | -5.5% | -3.7% | No |
Source: results/betting_walkforward.json and betting_walkforward2.json, regenerated from cached price snapshots.
Generation two prices every plate appearance from the pitcher's arsenal against each hitter's swing profile by pitch class, with platoon, times-through-order, and the actual posted lineups. It beat generation one on every bet type, halved the number of far-from-market disagreements, and removed the totals model's structural over-bias. It is the best strikeout forecaster this project has produced.
The de-vigged closing-quality price is still the best forecaster on every market, and no simulated policy is profitable yet. The strikeout model's neutral-line skill did not survive contact with real prices: where we disagree most with the line, the line has been right, which means the market is pricing information we do not yet hold, like rest plans, pitch-count intentions, and late scratches. Totals sit within one Brier point of the market and recover most of the vig; that is the current front of the iteration.
Nothing on this site is called an edge until this table shows a bet type winning at real prices. Leans on the boards are model tracking that feeds the public ledger. The loop continues: deeper models, another replay, whatever the table says, posted here.
Prices are the latest pre-start DraftKings snapshot, one book. Closing-line value tracking on forward leans began August 22 from the twice-daily odds captures. All fits use 2015-2023 only; the evaluation window was never fit on. Everything regenerates from cached snapshots; nothing is retroactive.
21 and over. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Everything here is analysis and entertainment, not individualized betting advice. Project Baseball takes no bets, sells no picks, and has no sportsbook relationship.