What the season simulation says each futures market is actually worth: ten thousand seasons on the real schedule, a full postseason bracket on top, and the win-total line nearest each team priced both ways. Compare these to a sportsbook board and the differences are the conversation.
| Team | Mean W | Div % | Playoff % | Pennant % | WS % | WT line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 96.2 | 81.3 | 96.8 | 33.7 | 20.1 | 96.5 | 48.6 | 51.4 |
| Yankees | 92.1 | 63.0 | 90.1 | 27.5 | 15.3 | 92.5 | 47.2 | 52.8 |
| Mariners | 92.8 | 73.7 | 92.0 | 27.7 | 14.7 | 92.5 | 52.3 | 47.7 |
| Cubs | 89.6 | 62.9 | 81.3 | 14.2 | 7.2 | 89.5 | 50.6 | 49.4 |
| Braves | 89.8 | 43.2 | 80.3 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 89.5 | 51.9 | 48.1 |
| Mets | 89.0 | 37.0 | 77.2 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 88.5 | 53.0 | 47.0 |
| Brewers | 85.4 | 29.9 | 58.0 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 85.5 | 49.4 | 50.6 |
| Blue Jays | 84.4 | 13.8 | 54.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 84.5 | 49.6 | 50.4 |
| Orioles | 84.1 | 13.2 | 52.1 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 84.5 | 47.8 | 52.2 |
| Phillies | 85.7 | 19.6 | 58.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 85.5 | 50.9 | 49.1 |
| D-backs | 85.1 | 9.4 | 54.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 85.5 | 47.7 | 52.3 |
| Astros | 83.8 | 13.0 | 49.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 83.5 | 52.6 | 47.4 |
| Padres | 84.6 | 8.1 | 51.0 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 84.5 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| Royals | 82.3 | 36.3 | 46.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 82.5 | 48.6 | 51.4 |
| Tigers | 81.2 | 29.9 | 40.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 81.5 | 48.4 | 51.6 |
| Red Sox | 81.6 | 6.7 | 35.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 81.5 | 50.2 | 49.8 |
| Rangers | 81.2 | 6.9 | 33.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 81.5 | 48.7 | 51.3 |
| Athletics | 81.0 | 6.2 | 32.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 80.5 | 52.7 | 47.3 |
| Guardians | 79.5 | 21.5 | 30.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 79.5 | 50.4 | 49.6 |
| Rays | 79.4 | 3.4 | 23.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 79.5 | 49.4 | 50.6 |
| Twins | 76.6 | 10.9 | 16.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 76.5 | 50.2 | 49.8 |
| Pirates | 77.0 | 3.8 | 12.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 76.5 | 52.8 | 47.2 |
| Giants | 77.6 | 1.1 | 14.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 77.5 | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| Reds | 75.5 | 2.6 | 8.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 75.5 | 49.7 | 50.3 |
| Angels | 67.8 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.5 | 52.2 | 47.8 |
| Cardinals | 71.6 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 71.5 | 50.6 | 49.4 |
| Nationals | 70.5 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 70.5 | 50.3 | 49.6 |
| Marlins | 70.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.5 | 47.0 | 53.0 |
| White Sox | 69.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 69.5 | 50.1 | 49.9 |
| Rockies | 65.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 65.5 | 52.2 | 47.8 |
Pennant and World Series numbers are full-season-replay fair values; an in-season re-seed from the live standings is on the roadmap. Bracket: best of 3, 5, 7 with home field to the better seed.
21 and over. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Everything here is analysis and entertainment, not individualized betting advice. Project Baseball takes no bets, sells no picks, and has no sportsbook relationship.