Our win probability for every game next to the de-vigged market price, from the same projections as the rest of the site. A lean appears when we differ from the market by at least 2.5 points; when we differ by more than 15 we assume we are the ones missing something and say so instead of posting it.
| Game | Starters | Our home % | Market % | Edge | ML (H/A) | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at BOS | Matt Wilkinson v Jake Bennett | 56.8 | 66.0 | -9.2 | -204 / +189 | SFN |
| NYM at CWS | Nolan McLean v Sean Newcomb | 41.2 | 49.5 | -8.3 | -102 / -106 | NYN |
| CHC at SEA | Shota Imanaga v Bryce Miller | 55.9 | 47.9 | +8.0 | +105 / -113 | SEA |
| PIT at LAD | Lake Bachar v Blake Snell | 64.5 | 72.1 | -7.6 | -275 / +253 | PIT |
| ATH at HOU | Brady Basso v Cristian Javier | 55.3 | 62.6 | -7.4 | -176 / +163 | ATH |
| WSH at MIA | Jackson Kent v Janson Junk | 53.1 | 60.2 | -7.1 | -158 / +147 | WAS |
| CLE at COL | Foster Griffin v Tomoyuki Sugano | 46.4 | 39.8 | +6.6 | +147 / -158 | COL |
| DET at KC | Jacob Waguespack v Daniel Lynch IV | 54.9 | 49.1 | +5.8 | +100 / -108 | KCA |
| TB at BAL | Nick Martinez v Shane Baz | 56.8 | 51.1 | +5.7 | -108 / +101 | BAL |
| TOR at NYY | José Soriano v Carlos Rodón | 59.2 | 54.0 | +5.2 | -122 / +114 | NYA |
| STL at PHI | Kyle Leahy v Cristopher Sánchez | 62.3 | 67.2 | -4.9 | -216 / +200 | SLN |
| CIN at ARI | Andrew Abbott v Mitch Bratt | 60.2 | 57.4 | +2.8 | -140 / +131 | ARI |
| ATL at MIL | Tyler Mahle v Shane Drohan | 51.4 | 52.1 | -0.7 | -113 / +105 | |
| MIN at SD | Bailey Ober v Walker Buehler | 57.9 | 58.5 | -0.6 | -147 / +137 | |
| LAA at TEX | Yusei Kikuchi v Cal Quantrill | 61.2 | 60.9 | +0.3 | -163 / +151 |
Team-level model with a conservative starter adjustment; no lineup, trade, or bullpen awareness yet. Prices are one public book, not the best available. Run lines, totals, and strikeout props live on the all-markets board; the full record, win or lose, lives on the ledger.
21 and over. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Everything here is analysis and entertainment, not individualized betting advice. Project Hardball takes no bets, sells no picks, and has no sportsbook relationship.