Our win probability for every game next to the de-vigged market price, from the same projections as the rest of the site. A lean appears when we differ from the market by at least 2.5 points; when we differ by more than 15 we assume we are the ones missing something and say so instead of posting it.
| Game | Starters | Our home % | Market % | Edge | ML (H/A) | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATH at HOU | Jacob Lopez v Hunter Brown | 55.3 | 68.0 | -12.7 | -246 / +199 | ATH |
| TB at BAL | Shane McClanahan v Brandon Young | 56.2 | 44.9 | +11.3 | +113 / -136 | BAL |
| ATL at MIL | Martín Pérez v Logan Henderson | 51.3 | 61.2 | -9.9 | -165 / +153 | ATL |
| NYM at CWS | Christian Scott v Luis Castillo | 42.1 | 51.5 | -9.4 | -117 / -103 | NYN |
| SF at BOS | Blade Tidwell v Patrick Sandoval | 56.8 | 65.5 | -8.7 | -217 / +177 | SFN |
| WSH at MIA | Jake Irvin v Eury Pérez | 54.2 | 62.2 | -8.0 | -186 / +153 | WAS |
| STL at PHI | v Andrew Painter | 61.9 | 55.1 | +6.8 | -136 / +113 | PHI |
| TOR at NYY | Dylan Cease v Ryan Weathers | 56.9 | 50.4 | +6.6 | -105 / -102 | NYA |
| PIT at LAD | Jared Jones v Tarik Skubal | 64.9 | 69.5 | -4.7 | -267 / +214 | PIT |
| CHC at SEA | David Peterson v Kade Anderson | 56.5 | 51.9 | +4.6 | -119 / -101 | SEA |
| DET at KC | Drew Anderson v Michael Wacha | 53.8 | 50.0 | +3.8 | -110 / -110 | KCA |
| CLE at COL | Tanner Bibee v Gabriel Hughes | 46.6 | 43.9 | +2.8 | +118 / -142 | COL |
| LAA at TEX | Ryan Johnson v Cody Bradford | 61.2 | 60.8 | +0.4 | -175 / +144 | |
| CIN at ARI | Rhett Lowder v Michael Soroka | 59.5 | 59.7 | -0.2 | -167 / +137 | |
| MIN at SD | Dean Kremer v Casey Mize | 59.5 | 59.5 | +0.0 | -164 / +136 |
Team-level model with a conservative starter adjustment; no lineup, trade, or bullpen awareness yet. Prices are one public book, not the best available. Run lines, totals, and strikeout props live on the all-markets board; the full record, win or lose, lives on the ledger.
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