Best and Worst Contracts 2027 surplus value

Every contract priced against our projection: projected 2027 wins at the market rate of roughly eight million dollars per win, minus what the player is actually paid. Salary figures are public estimates from Cots Baseball Contracts; the market rate is a heuristic, not a contract prediction.

Best contracts

PlayerTeamPos2026 salaryProj WARMarket valueSurplusTerms
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCcf$0.9M4.8$38.3M+$37.4M1 y/$894,000 (26) 6 y/$115 (27-32)
Junior CamineroTB3b$0.8M4.4$35.5M+$34.7M1 y/$794,800 (26)
Nick KurtzATH1b$0.8M3.9$31.5M+$30.7M1 y/$785,000 (26)
James WoodWSHdh-lf$0.8M3.7$29.6M+$28.8M1 y/$806,900 (26)
Elly De La CruzCINss$0.8M3.6$29.2M+$28.4M1 y/$800,000 (26)
Drake BaldwinATLc$0.8M3.5$28.3M+$27.5M1 y/$800,000 (26)
Gunnar HendersonBALss$8.5M4.5$35.7M+$27.2M1 y/$8.5M (26)
Dillon DinglerDETc$0.8M3.4$27.5M+$26.6M1 y/$834,900 (26)
Gabriel MorenoARIc$2.5M3.6$29.0M+$26.5M1 y/$2.525M (26)
Iván HerreraSTLc-dh$0.8M3.3$26.8M+$26.0M1 y/$798,900 (26)
Adley RutschmanBOSc$2.1M3.4$27.5M+$25.4M1 y/$7.25M (26)
Brice TurangMIL2b$4.2M3.6$28.9M+$24.8M1 y/$4.15M (26)
Jackson MerrillSDcf$2.1M3.4$26.8M+$24.7M9 y/$135M (26-34)
Ben RiceNYYc-1b$0.8M3.2$25.3M+$24.5M1 y/$845,800 (26)
Corbin CarrollARIlf$10.6M4.4$35.0M+$24.4M8 y/$111M (23-30)+31 cl opt
Wyatt LangfordTEXlf$0.8M3.1$25.0M+$24.2M1 y/$805,000 (26)
Miguel VargasCWS3b$0.8M3.1$25.0M+$24.2M1 y/$805,700 (26)
Andy PagesLADcf$0.8M2.9$22.9M+$22.1M1 y/$800,000 (26)
Paul SkenesPITrhp-s$1.1M2.9$23.1M+$22.0M1 y/$1.085M (26)
Wilyer AbreuBOSof$0.8M2.8$22.3M+$21.4M1 y/$810,000 (26)
Geraldo PerdomoARIss$6.2M3.4$27.6M+$21.3M4 y/$45M (26-29)+30 cl opt
Bobby Witt Jr.KCss$14.1M4.4$35.3M+$21.2M11 yr/$288.7M (24-34)+opt
Shohei OhtaniLADdh-rhp$28.2M6.2$49.3M+$21.1M10 y/$700M (24-33)*
CJ AbramsWSH2b-ss$4.2M3.1$25.1M+$20.9M1 y/$4.2M (26)
Cristopher SánchezPHIlhp-s$3.5M3.0$24.2M+$20.7M4 y/$22.5 (25-28) 6 y/$104 (27-32)
Carter JensenKCc$0.8M2.6$21.2M+$20.4M1 y/$781,150 (26)
Jonathan ArandaTB2b$0.8M2.6$20.9M+$20.1M1 y/$796,400 (26)
Otto LopezMIA2b$0.8M2.6$20.6M+$19.8M1 y/$810,500 (26)
Bryan WooSEArhp-s$0.8M2.5$20.3M+$19.5M1 y/$831,600 (26)
Shea LangeliersATHc$5.2M3.1$24.5M+$19.2M1 y/$5.25M (26)
Cal RaleighSEAc$12.7M3.9$31.5M+$18.9M6 y/$105M (25-30)+31 v opt
Cole YoungSEAss$0.8M2.5$19.6M+$18.8M1 y/$786,100 (26)
Michael BuschCHC3b$0.9M2.4$19.4M+$18.5M1 y/$860,000 (26)
Freddy PeraltaTBrhp-s$2.4M2.6$20.6M+$18.2M5 y/$15.5M (20-24)+25-26 opts
Jac CaglianoneKCrf-1b$0.8M2.4$18.9M+$18.1M1 y/$784,000 (26)
Zach NetoLAAss$4.2M2.8$22.2M+$18.1M1 y/$4.15M (26)
Alec BurlesonSTL1b$3.3M2.7$21.3M+$18.0M1 y/$3.3M (26)
Sal StewartCIN1b$0.8M2.3$18.1M+$17.3M1 y/$781,500 (26)
William ContrerasMILc$9.4M3.3$26.6M+$17.2M1 y/$9.4M (26)+27 cl opt
Jackson ChourioMILof$7.2M3.0$24.4M+$17.1M8 y/$82M (24-31)+32-33 opts
Hunter GoodmanCOLc$0.8M2.2$17.9M+$17.1M1 y/$810,000 (26)
Gavin WilliamsCLErhp-s$0.8M2.1$17.2M+$16.4M1 y/$822,200 (26)
Oneil CruzPITcf$3.3M2.4$19.6M+$16.3M1 y/$3.3M (26)
Andrew AbbottCINlhp-s$0.8M2.1$17.0M+$16.2M1 y/$800,000 (26)
Shane SmithCWSrhp-s$0.4M2.1$16.5M+$16.1M1 y/$825,900 (26)
Riley GreeneDETlf$5.0M2.6$21.1M+$16.1M1 y/$5M (26)
Reese OlsonDETrhp-s$0.8M2.1$16.8M+$16.0M1 y/$818,100 (26)
Luis García Jr.NYY2b$2.0M2.2$17.9M+$15.9M1 y/$6.875M (26)
Tyler SoderstromATHlf$1.4M2.2$17.3M+$15.8M7 y/$86M (26-32)+33 cl opt
Cade HortonCHCrhp-s$0.8M2.1$16.6M+$15.8M1 y/$817,500 (26)

Worst contracts

Minimum two million dollar salary; pre-arbitration players cannot be bad contracts.

PlayerTeamPos2026 salaryProj WARMarket valueSurplusTerms
Jose AltuveHOU2b-lf$33.0M0.4$3.1M$-29.9M5 y/$125M (25-29)
Cody BellingerNYYcf$42.5M1.9$15.1M$-27.4M5 y/$162.5M (26-30)
Giancarlo StantonNYYdh-rf$29.0M0.3$2.5M$-26.5M13 y/$325M (15-27)+28 opt
Javier BáezDETss-cf$24.0M0.1$0.6M$-23.4M6 y/$140M (22-27)
Bo BichetteNYM3b$42.0M2.3$18.7M$-23.3M3 y/$126M (26-28)
Juan SotoNYMlf$61.9M4.8$38.8M$-23.1M15 y/$765M (25-39)
Carlos CorreaHOU3b$32.8M1.4$11.3M$-21.5M6 yr/$200M (23-28)+opts
Nolan ArenadoARI3b$24.4M0.4$3.1M$-21.3M8 y/$260M (19-26)+'27 extn*
Trevor StoryBOSss$25.0M0.6$4.9M$-20.1M6 y/$140M (22-27)+28 cl opt
Zack WheelerPHIrhp-s$42.0M2.9$22.9M$-19.1M3 y/$126M (25-27)
Masataka YoshidaBOSlf$18.6M0.2$1.4M$-17.2M5 y/$90M (23-27)
Jacob deGromTEXrhp-s$38.0M2.6$21.1M$-16.9M5 y/$185M (23-27)+28 opt
Corbin BurnesARIrhp-s$31.0M1.8$14.6M$-16.3M6 y/$210M (25-30)*
Ha-Seong KimATLss$20.0M0.5$4.1M$-15.9M1 y/$20M (26)
Christian YelichMILlf$24.0M1.0$8.3M$-15.7M9 y/$215M (20-28)+29 m opt*
Marcus SemienNYM2b$26.0M1.4$11.0M$-15.0M7 y/$175M (22-28)
Xander BogaertsSDss$25.5M1.3$10.6M$-14.8M11 y/$280M (23-33)
Josh HaderHOUlhp-c$19.0M0.5$4.2M$-14.8M5 y/$95M (24-28)
Jung Hoo LeeSFrf$23.2M1.1$9.1M$-14.1M6 y/$113M (24-29)
George SpringerTORrf$24.2M1.3$10.1M$-14.1M6 yr/$150M (21-26)
Mike TroutLAAcf$37.1M2.9$23.1M$-14.0M12 y/$426.5M (19-30)
Aaron NolaPHIrhp-s$24.6M1.3$10.7M$-13.9M7 y/$172M (24-30)
Christian WalkerHOU1b$20.0M0.8$6.3M$-13.7M3 y/$60M (25-27)
Cristian JavierHOUrhp-s$21.4M1.0$8.2M$-13.2M5 y/$64M (23-27)
Tyler GlasnowLADrhp-s$32.5M2.5$19.8M$-12.7M5 y/$136,562,500 (24-28)
Luis SeverinoATHrhp-s$25.0M1.5$12.3M$-12.7M3 y/$67M (25-27)
Corey SeagerTEXss$31.5M2.4$19.0M$-12.5M10 y/$325M (22-31)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1b$40.2M3.5$27.7M$-12.5M14 y/$500 (26-39)
Raisel IglesiasATLrhp-c$16.0M0.5$3.6M$-12.4M1 y/$16M (26)
Sonny GrayBOSrhp-s$31.0M2.3$18.6M$-12.4M3 y/$75M (24-26)+27 cl opt*
Andrew BenintendiCWSlf$17.1M0.6$4.8M$-12.3M5 y/$75M (23-27)
Blake TreinenLADrhp$13.5M0.2$1.4M$-12.1M2 y/$22M (25-26)
Nathan EovaldiTEXrhp-s$29.0M2.1$17.0M$-12.0M3 y/$75M (25-27)
Trea TurnerPHIss$27.3M1.9$15.3M$-12.0M11 y/$300M (23-33)
Joc PedersonTEXdh-lf$18.5M0.8$6.7M$-11.8M2 y/$37M (25-26)
Manny MachadoSD3b$25.1M1.7$13.3M$-11.8M11 y/$350M (23-33)
Gleyber TorresDET2b$22.0M1.3$10.2M$-11.8M1 y/$22.025M (26)
Dansby SwansonCHCss$28.0M2.0$16.3M$-11.7M7 y/$177M (23-29)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARIdh$13.0M0.2$1.3M$-11.7M3 y/$42M (24-26)+27 cl opt
Ryan HelsleyBALrhp-c$14.0M0.3$2.5M$-11.5M2 y/$28M (26-27)
Eugenio SuárezCIN3b$15.0M0.5$3.7M$-11.3M1 y/$15M (26)+27 m opt
Kyle TuckerLADrf$33.0M2.7$21.7M$-11.3M4 y/$240M (26-29)*
Ryan McMahonNYY3b$16.0M0.6$4.9M$-11.1M6 yr/$70M (22-27)
Jeff McNeilATH2b$15.8M0.6$4.7M$-11.1M4 yr/$50M (23-26)+27 cl opt
Eduardo RodriguezARIlhp-s$21.0M1.3$10.2M$-10.8M4 y/$80M (24-27)+28 v opt
Luis Robert Jr.NYMcf$20.0M1.2$9.4M$-10.6M6 y/$50M (20-25)+26-27 opts
Matt ChapmanSF3b$25.2M1.8$14.7M$-10.5M6 y/$151M (25-30)
Tyler O'NeillBALlf$16.5M0.8$6.2M$-10.3M3 y/$49.5M (25-27)
Devin WilliamsNYMrhp-c$14.1M0.5$3.9M$-10.2M3 y/$51M (26-28)*
Jorge PolancoNYM1b-3b$17.0M0.8$6.8M$-10.2M2 y/$40M (26-27)