Season Props futures beyond team wins

Season-long player and team markets priced from current totals plus our rest-of-season distributions: stat over/unders, league-leader races, award proxies, and team milestone props. All model fair values; market prices join as the odds feed serves outrights.

Season Home runs over/under

Player	Team	Line	Now	Proj final	Over %	Under %
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	45.5	37	45	46.4	53.6
Matt Olson	ATL	43.5	36	43	46.2	53.8
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	44.5	36	44	39.1	60.9
Junior Caminero	TB	43.5	35	43	40.1	59.9
Hunter Goodman	COL	41.5	34	41	40.7	59.3
Ben Rice	NYY	41.5	34	41	42.7	57.3
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	39.5	32	39	40.3	59.7
Pete Alonso	BAL	37.5	30	37	40.5	59.5
James Wood	WSH	36.5	30	36	48.3	51.7
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	37.5	30	37	45.1	54.9
CJ Abrams	WSH	34.5	29	34	49.2	50.8
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	34.5	29	34	35.8	64.2
Miguel Vargas	CWS	35.5	29	35	42.2	57.8
Colson Montgomery	CWS	33.5	27	33	39.2	60.8
Jordan Walker	STL	32.5	27	32	46.5	53.5
Sal Stewart	CIN	32.5	27	32	49.4	50.6
Brandon Lowe	PIT	33.5	27	33	41.7	58.3
Willson Contreras	BOS	31.5	26	31	45.6	54.4
Rafael Devers	SF	32.5	26	32	42.3	57.7
Kazuma Okamoto	TOR	31.5	26	31	36.9	63.1
Dillon Dingler	DET	31.5	26	31	43.1	56.9
Max Muncy	LAD	31.5	26	31	45.7	54.3
Bryce Harper	PHI	30.5	25	30	46.5	53.5
Byron Buxton	MIN	31.5	25	31	37.9	62.1
Luis Garcia	NYY	30.5	25	30	37.6	62.4
Manny Machado	SD	29.5	24	29	45.0	55.0
Christian Walker	HOU	28.5	23	28	39.3	60.7
Shea Langeliers	ATH	28.5	23	28	46.2	53.8
Seiya Suzuki	CHC	27.5	22	27	37.9	62.1
Jake Bauers	MIL	26.5	22	26	48.4	51.6
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	27.5	22	27	45.8	54.2
Jac Caglianone	KC	27.5	22	27	44.8	55.2
Drake Baldwin	ATL	25.5	21	25	50.0	50.0
Ian Happ	CHC	26.5	21	26	35.9	64.1
Jake Burger	TEX	26.5	21	26	39.0	61.0
Casey Schmitt	SF	25.5	21	25	47.2	52.8
Nick Kurtz	ATH	26.5	21	26	48.9	51.1
Alec Burleson	STL	26.5	21	26	37.6	62.4
Andy Pages	LAD	26.5	21	26	36.1	63.9
Zach Neto	LAA	26.5	21	26	40.5	59.5

Season Hits over/under

Player	Team	Line	Now	Proj final	Over %	Under %
Luis Arraez	PHI	194.5	158	194	49.2	50.8
Otto Lopez	MIA	189.5	154	189	46.2	53.8
Yandy Diaz	TB	182.5	148	182	47.6	52.4
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	180.5	147	180	49.7	50.3
Jordan Walker	STL	175.5	143	175	45.6	54.4
Nick Gonzales	PIT	173.5	142	173	46.9	53.1
Freddie Freeman	LAD	174.5	142	174	48.5	51.5
Alec Burleson	STL	175.5	142	175	45.9	54.1
Fernando Tatis	SD	172.5	140	172	49.6	50.4
Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	170.5	139	170	49.3	50.7
Chandler Simpson	TB	171.5	139	171	47.9	52.1
Ernie Clement	TOR	167.5	137	167	49.5	50.5
Michael Harris	ATL	168.5	137	168	49.3	50.7
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	169.5	137	169	47.4	52.6
Kevin McGonigle	DET	165.5	135	165	48.8	51.2
Bo Bichette	NYM	168.5	135	168	48.8	51.2
Junior Caminero	TB	167.5	135	167	47.4	52.6
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	165.5	134	165	47.9	52.1
Andy Pages	LAD	165.5	134	165	49.0	51.0
Xavier Edwards	MIA	166.5	134	166	45.2	54.8
Jonathan Aranda	TB	164.5	133	164	47.4	52.6
Nico Hoerner	CHC	164.5	132	164	49.0	51.0
Pete Alonso	BAL	161.5	131	161	45.2	54.8
CJ Abrams	WSH	161.5	131	161	48.1	51.9
Jung Hoo Lee	SF	159.5	130	159	49.8	50.2
Matt Olson	ATL	159.5	130	159	48.9	51.1
Alex Bregman	CHC	159.5	129	159	45.7	54.3
TJ Rumfield	COL	156.5	128	156	46.8	53.2
Sal Stewart	CIN	157.5	127	157	46.0	54.0
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	155.5	126	155	48.5	51.5
Carson Benge	NYM	154.5	126	154	46.3	53.7
Josh Naylor	SEA	154.5	125	154	47.8	52.2
Brandon Nimmo	TEX	154.5	125	154	48.0	52.0
Bobby Witt	KC	156.5	125	156	48.1	51.9
Trea Turner	PHI	157.5	125	157	45.8	54.2
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	153.5	124	153	47.4	52.5
Brandon Marsh	PHI	152.5	124	152	48.5	51.5
Ozzie Albies	ATL	152.5	123	152	45.8	54.2
Chase Meidroth	CWS	151.5	123	151	48.5	51.5
Randy Arozarena	SEA	149.5	122	149	47.8	52.2

Season Stolen bases over/under

Player	Team	Line	Now	Proj final	Over %	Under %
Nasim Nuñez	WSH	51.5	42	51	41.3	58.7
Chandler Simpson	TB	44.5	35	44	38.3	61.7
Jazz Chisholm	NYY	40.5	33	40	39.9	60.1
Bobby Witt	KC	40.5	33	40	42.3	57.7
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	38.5	31	38	42.7	57.3
Jose Ramirez	CLE	35.5	29	35	37.4	62.6
Fernando Tatis	SD	34.5	28	34	41.1	58.9
Josh Naylor	SEA	29.5	25	29	49.7	50.3
Otto Lopez	MIA	30.5	25	30	41.4	58.6
CJ Abrams	WSH	30.5	24	30	36.0	63.9
Jackson Merrill	SD	29.5	24	29	36.4	63.6
Bryson Stott	PHI	28.5	23	28	41.0	59.0
Jake McCarthy	COL	27.5	22	27	41.2	58.8
Elly De La Cruz	CIN	28.5	22	28	49.5	50.5
Nico Hoerner	CHC	26.5	21	26	37.0	63.0
Randy Arozarena	SEA	25.5	20	25	36.8	63.2
Xavier Edwards	MIA	24.5	19	24	34.7	65.3
Jakob Marsee	MIA	24.5	19	24	34.5	65.5
Andres Gimenez	TOR	23.5	19	23	40.2	59.8
Travis Bazzana	CLE	21.5	18	21	34.0	66.0
Carson Benge	NYM	21.5	18	21	39.3	60.7
Corbin Carroll	ARI	24.5	18	24	38.9	61.1
Cedric Mullins	TB	22.5	18	22	42.5	57.5
Brice Turang	MIL	23.5	18	23	34.7	65.3
Jarren Duran	BOS	22.5	18	22	46.7	53.3
James Wood	WSH	21.5	17	21	33.5	66.5
Geraldo Perdomo	ARI	21.5	17	21	31.8	68.2
Zach Neto	LAA	21.5	17	21	42.3	57.7
Trea Turner	PHI	21.5	17	21	48.6	51.3
Dansby Swanson	CHC	20.5	17	20	42.9	57.1
Jordan Walker	STL	20.5	17	20	45.6	54.4
Julio Rodriguez	SEA	21.5	16	21	34.9	65.1
Sam Antonacci	CWS	19.5	16	19	31.2	68.8
Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	20.5	16	20	35.4	64.6
Caleb Durbin	BOS	20.5	16	20	34.7	65.3
Xander Bogaerts	SD	19.5	16	19	42.3	57.7
Brayan Rocchio	CLE	18.5	15	18	41.1	58.9
Luke Keaschall	MIN	17.5	14	17	49.8	50.2
Jackson Chourio	MIL	16.5	13	16	45.9	54.1
JJ Wetherholt	STL	16.5	13	16	29.7	70.3

Season RBI over/under

Player	Team	Line	Now	Proj final	Over %	Under %
Sal Stewart	CIN	115.5	96	115	46.0	54.0
Jordan Walker	STL	115.5	96	115	47.8	52.2
Alec Burleson	STL	112.5	93	112	44.0	56.0
CJ Abrams	WSH	109.5	91	109	49.2	50.8
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	110.5	90	110	47.5	52.5
Pete Alonso	BAL	105.5	85	105	45.6	54.4
Dillon Dingler	DET	99.5	82	99	46.7	53.3
Junior Caminero	TB	100.5	81	100	49.7	50.3
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	100.5	80	100	47.4	52.6
Luis Garcia	NYY	96.5	80	96	48.0	52.0
Andy Pages	LAD	98.5	80	98	42.6	57.4
Ben Rice	NYY	99.5	80	99	44.0	56.0
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	99.5	80	99	46.5	53.5
Brandon Lowe	PIT	98.5	80	98	46.0	54.0
Willson Contreras	BOS	94.5	78	94	49.0	51.0
Matt Olson	ATL	95.5	77	95	48.1	51.9
Josh Bell	MIN	93.5	77	93	47.4	52.5
Jonathan Aranda	TB	93.5	76	93	42.4	57.6
Brice Turang	MIL	91.5	75	91	43.0	57.0
Jo Adell	CLE	91.5	74	91	47.6	52.4
Kazuma Okamoto	TOR	89.5	74	89	49.7	50.3
Alec Bohm	PHI	89.5	74	89	48.1	51.9
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	93.5	74	93	45.9	54.1
Seiya Suzuki	CHC	90.5	74	90	48.9	51.1
Miguel Vargas	CWS	91.5	74	91	46.5	53.5
Jake Burger	TEX	89.5	73	89	45.4	54.6
James Wood	WSH	90.5	73	90	47.6	52.4
Manny Machado	SD	89.5	72	89	43.2	56.8
Jake Bauers	MIL	87.5	72	87	47.5	52.5
Yandy Diaz	TB	88.5	72	88	45.7	54.3
Colson Montgomery	CWS	88.5	72	88	48.0	52.0
Christian Walker	HOU	88.5	72	88	42.8	57.2
Bryce Harper	PHI	89.5	72	89	42.8	57.2
Liam Hicks	TB	84.5	71	84	47.6	52.4
Rafael Devers	SF	87.5	70	87	45.9	54.1
Michael Harris	ATL	85.5	69	85	43.6	56.4
Nick Kurtz	ATH	86.5	69	86	42.9	57.1
Ryan O'Hearn	PIT	83.5	69	83	42.8	57.2
Hunter Goodman	COL	85.5	69	85	44.8	55.2
Jake McCarthy	COL	81.5	68	81	43.1	56.9

Season Pitcher strikeouts over/under

Player	Team	Line	Now	Proj final	Over %	Under %
Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	262.5	216	262	47.5	52.5
Dylan Cease	TOR	243.5	201	243	49.5	50.5
Gavin Williams	CLE	247.5	201	247	47.5	52.5
Jesús Luzardo	PHI	240.5	194	240	46.9	53.1
Cam Schlittler	NYY	240.5	193	240	47.1	52.9
Cristopher Sánchez	PHI	231.5	187	231	46.8	53.2
Reid Detmers	LAA	215.5	172	215	49.7	50.3
Paul Skenes	PIT	214.5	171	214	49.6	50.4
Chris Sale	ATL	206.5	166	206	47.4	52.6
Cade Cavalli	WSH	196.5	162	196	48.4	51.6
Nolan McLean	NYM	200.5	162	200	49.8	50.2
MacKenzie Gore	TEX	203.5	161	203	46.9	53.1
Braxton Ashcraft	PIT	197.5	159	197	46.8	53.2
Chase Burns	CIN	202.5	159	202	46.7	53.3
Taj Bradley	MIN	196.5	158	196	48.9	51.1
Sean Burke	CWS	197.5	158	197	47.9	52.1
Jacob deGrom	TEX	194.5	157	194	48.2	51.8
Logan Gilbert	SEA	198.5	157	198	46.8	53.2
Parker Messick	CLE	189.5	152	189	48.4	51.6
Aaron Nola	PHI	182.5	146	182	46.4	53.6
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD	185.5	145	185	49.0	51.0
Zack Wheeler	PHI	178.5	144	178	49.8	50.2
Joey Cantillo	CLE	181.5	144	181	49.5	50.5
Kevin Gausman	CHC	180.5	143	180	48.2	51.8
Ryan Weathers	NYY	173.5	140	173	50.0	50.0
Shota Imanaga	CHC	174.5	140	174	46.6	53.4
Drew Rasmussen	TB	171.5	138	171	47.0	53.0
Joe Ryan	MIN	174.5	138	174	50.0	50.0
Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	171.5	137	171	49.2	50.8
Bryan Woo	SEA	172.5	137	172	49.5	50.5
José Soriano	TOR	167.5	136	167	48.2	51.8
Tarik Skubal	LAD	170.5	135	170	49.3	50.7
Payton Tolle	BOS	168.5	134	168	49.4	50.6
Eury Pérez	MIA	166.5	133	166	47.6	52.4
Shane Baz	BAL	167.5	132	167	48.9	51.1
Sandy Alcantara	MIA	165.5	131	165	47.4	52.6
Landen Roupp	SF	164.5	130	164	47.0	53.0
Kyle Bradish	BAL	165.5	129	165	47.6	52.4
Freddy Peralta	TB	166.5	129	166	46.9	53.1
Michael King	SD	164.5	128	164	47.8	52.2

Season Pitcher wins over/under

Player	Team	Line	Now	Proj final	Over %	Under %
Cristopher Sánchez	PHI	19.5	16	19	43.6	56.4
Sonny Gray	BOS	19.5	16	19	38.0	62.0
Chase Burns	CIN	16.5	14	16	43.3	56.7
Braxton Ashcraft	PIT	15.5	13	15	38.3	61.7
Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	15.5	13	15	39.8	60.2
Sandy Alcantara	MIA	15.5	13	15	48.6	51.3
Drew Rasmussen	TB	16.5	13	16	27.8	72.2
Eduardo Rodriguez	ARI	15.5	13	15	44.4	55.6
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	LAD	15.5	12	15	31.1	68.9
Chris Sale	ATL	15.5	12	15	30.5	69.5
Gavin Williams	CLE	14.5	12	14	45.1	54.9
Nick Martinez	TB	14.5	12	14	42.7	57.3
Tomoyuki Sugano	COL	14.5	12	14	40.4	59.6
Andre Pallante	STL	14.5	12	14	36.4	63.6
Justin Wrobleski	LAD	13.5	11	13	32.3	67.7
Cam Schlittler	NYY	13.5	11	13	37.8	62.2
Cade Cavalli	WSH	13.5	11	13	24.5	75.5
Robbie Ray	SD	13.5	11	13	42.3	57.7
Jesús Luzardo	PHI	13.5	11	13	46.4	53.6
Nathan Eovaldi	TEX	12.5	10	12	41.1	58.9
Kyle Leahy	STL	11.5	10	11	43.6	56.4
José Soriano	TOR	12.5	10	12	28.9	71.1
Zack Wheeler	PHI	12.5	10	12	45.9	54.1
Logan Gilbert	SEA	12.5	10	12	39.6	60.4
Joey Cantillo	CLE	11.5	9	11	28.7	71.3
Paul Skenes	PIT	11.5	9	11	40.9	59.1
Max Meyer	MIA	10.5	9	10	46.5	53.5
Bryan Woo	SEA	11.5	9	11	40.3	59.7
Nolan McLean	NYM	11.5	9	11	30.7	69.3
Parker Messick	CLE	11.5	9	11	23.7	76.3
Taj Bradley	MIN	11.5	9	11	32.9	67.1
Keider Montero	DET	10.5	9	10	49.6	50.3
Davis Martin	CWS	11.5	9	11	23.9	76.1
Jacob deGrom	TEX	11.5	9	11	43.0	57.0
Brandon Young	BAL	10.5	9	10	46.4	53.6
Ian Seymour	TB	11.5	9	11	24.6	75.4
Randy Vásquez	SD	11.5	9	11	26.9	73.1
Trevor Rogers	BAL	11.5	9	11	35.8	64.2
Colin Rea	CHC	10.5	8	10	27.4	72.6
Will Warren	NYY	10.5	8	10	27.8	72.2

League leader markets

Probability of leading MLB, from joint rest-of-season simulation.

Who	Team	Market	Our %
Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	K	67.5
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	HR	37.1
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	HR	18.6
Matt Olson	ATL	HR	16.3
Junior Caminero	TB	HR	14.0
Gavin Williams	CLE	K	13.4
Dylan Cease	TOR	K	8.1
Hunter Goodman	COL	HR	5.6
Ben Rice	NYY	HR	5.4
Cam Schlittler	NYY	K	5.2
Jesús Luzardo	PHI	K	4.8
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	HR	1.7
Cristopher Sánchez	PHI	K	1.0
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	HR	0.5
Pete Alonso	BAL	HR	0.4
James Wood	WSH	HR	0.2
Miguel Vargas	CWS	HR	0.1
CJ Abrams	WSH	HR	0.1
Reid Detmers	LAA	K	0.1
Jordan Walker	STL	HR	0.0
Paul Skenes	PIT	K	0.0
Colson Montgomery	CWS	HR	0.0
Sal Stewart	CIN	HR	0.0
Brandon Lowe	PIT	HR	0.0
Willson Contreras	BOS	HR	0.0
Rafael Devers	SF	HR	0.0
Munetaka Murakami	CWS	HR	0.0
Dillon Dingler	DET	HR	0.0
Hogan Harris	ATH	K	0.0
Gordon Graceffo	STL	K	0.0
Antonio Senzatela	MIL	K	0.0
Louis Varland	TOR	K	0.0
Sandy Alcantara	MIA	K	0.0
Tyler Holton	DET	K	0.0
José Suarez	ATH	K	0.0

Team season props

From the full simulated win distributions.

Who	Team	Market	Our %
LAN	LAD	playoffs	96.8
SEA	SEA	playoffs	92.0
NYA	NYY	playoffs	90.1
LAN	LAD	90+ wins	86.4
LAN	LAD	division winner	81.3
CHN	CHC	playoffs	81.3
ATL	ATL	playoffs	80.3
NYN	NYM	playoffs	77.2
SEA	SEA	division winner	73.7
SEA	SEA	90+ wins	70.2
NYA	NYY	90+ wins	66.3
NYA	NYY	division winner	63.0
CHN	CHC	division winner	62.9
PHI	PHI	playoffs	58.6
MIL	MIL	playoffs	58.0
ARI	ARI	playoffs	54.8
TOR	TOR	playoffs	54.0
BAL	BAL	playoffs	52.1
ATL	ATL	90+ wins	51.9
SDN	SD	playoffs	51.0
CHN	CHC	90+ wins	50.6
HOU	HOU	playoffs	49.7
NYN	NYM	90+ wins	46.6
KCA	KC	playoffs	46.6
ARI	ARI	wild card	45.4
ATL	ATL	division winner	43.2
SDN	SD	wild card	42.9
DET	DET	playoffs	40.5
NYN	NYM	wild card	40.2
TOR	TOR	wild card	40.2
PHI	PHI	wild card	39.0
BAL	BAL	wild card	38.9
ATL	ATL	wild card	37.1
NYN	NYM	division winner	37.0
HOU	HOU	wild card	36.7
KCA	KC	division winner	36.3
BOS	BOS	playoffs	35.5
TEX	TEX	playoffs	33.9
ATH	ATH	playoffs	32.2
CLE	CLE	playoffs	30.3
DET	DET	division winner	29.9
MIL	MIL	division winner	29.9
LAN	LAD	100+ wins	29.8
BOS	BOS	wild card	28.8
MIL	MIL	wild card	28.1
PHI	PHI	90+ wins	27.7
NYA	NYY	wild card	27.1
TEX	TEX	wild card	27.0
ATH	ATH	wild card	26.0
MIL	MIL	90+ wins	25.8
ARI	ARI	90+ wins	24.6
TBA	TB	playoffs	23.6
SDN	SD	90+ wins	21.8
CLE	CLE	division winner	21.5
TOR	TOR	90+ wins	21.3
TBA	TB	wild card	20.2
BAL	BAL	90+ wins	19.7
PHI	PHI	division winner	19.6
CHN	CHC	wild card	18.4
SEA	SEA	wild card	18.3

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